Did Trump Becoming President Push Americans to Leave the United States?

From 2017 into 2018, and then in 2025, we saw sharp increases in people seeking quotes for international moves out of the US.

This year, searches about moving to Canada and Europe have increased dramatically, and quote requests are at an all-time high.

Immigration lawyers have reported more inquiries, and social media is awash with people discussing escape plans, second passports, and foreign residency programs.

Conversely, we have seen a dramatic reduction in the number of people seeking to move into the US.

The Cato Institute reports that the number of legal immigrants coming to the States is at an all-time low, breaking the trends of previous years where legal immigration was rising year on year.  

This begs the question: Did Donald Trump’s election wins on November 8, 2016, and November 5, 2024, drive this obvious interest in leaving the United States?

Well, the available evidence tells two different tales.

After Trump’s first victory, the increase was much bigger in people doing research than actually moving.

Following his second victory, Americans started taking action to move abroad, but the scale, motivation, and permanence of that movement are difficult to measure.

Why American emigration is difficult to measure

The United States does not have a system recording every citizen who permanently leaves the country.

An American can leave using a passport without declaring that the trip is for permanent emigration.

We therefore have to rely on the trend data collected by destination countries, including:

• Residence and work permits
• Census records
• Foreign citizenship applications
• School and university enrollment
• Property purchases
• Tax filings
• Social Security payments sent abroad

But these sources measure different things. A residency application may be a genuine new move, but a citizenship application often comes from someone who has already lived abroad for years.

Whereas a foreign home purchase could be a permanent residence, a vacation property, or an investment.

Consequently, claims that a particular election caused a precise number of Americans to leave cannot be proved.

However, as reported by WSJ and numerous other publications, a 2026 analysis of records from more than 50 destination countries concludes that American citizen emigration has reached unprecedented levels.

You may also like to read: Countries with the Easiest Residency Path. Residency permits are often one of the stumbling blocks to moving abroad, so in this guide, we share 9 countries with the easiest residency paths.

After the 2016 election, interest in moving surged, but there was no mass exodus

Gallup found that 16% of Americans surveyed in both 2017 and 2018 said they would like to move permanently to another country.

That compared with an average of 10% during Barack Obama’s presidency and 11% during the George W. Bush period, measured by Gallup.

Political opinion was strongly associated with the desire to leave.

Twenty-two percent of Americans who disapproved of Trump said they would like to leave, compared with 7% of those who approved of him.

Among women, those expressing a desire to emigrate rose to 20%, while 40% of women younger than 30 said they would leave if they had the opportunity.

Canada was the most frequently named destination. In 2018, 26% of Americans who wanted to move abroad chose Canada, up from 12% in 2016.

During the first five quarters beginning in January 2017, an average of approximately 2,342 U.S. citizens received Canadian permanent residency per quarter.

The average during the preceding decade had been approximately 2,131.

The first quarter of 2018 recorded 2,615 new permanent residents from the United States, the highest quarterly figure in about a decade.

A later Statistics Canada study warned against assuming every immigrant arriving from the United States was an American citizen fleeing the Trump administration.

The influx included U.S. citizens who had already been temporary residents in Canada, as well as non-American citizens who had been living in the United States before moving north.

The study found that changes in migration flows were connected to Canadian immigration programs, labor-market conditions, and the characteristics of different migrant groups, not only who was controlling the White House.

You may also like to read: The Ultimate Canadian Province Comparison. If Canada is your on radar of where to move, then you will find this province comparison invaluable.

Some people leaving the United States were not American citizens

It is not just U.S. citizens that are leaving the States.

The Trump administration’s changes to immigration enforcement, asylum policy, and Temporary Protected Status meant that some foreign nationals already living in the United States looked to move elsewhere.

Canada experienced an increase in asylum seekers crossing from the United States.

These were moves out of the United States, but they were not necessarily examples of American citizens leaving because they disliked the election result.

They were often immigrants or temporary residents at risk of possibly losing their legal right to remain in the country.

That is important to note, as a rise in total departures from the United States does not automatically mean it is American citizens emigrating.

You may also like to read: Countries Where You Can Live on $2000 a month. In this guide, we look at countries where you can realistically live on $2000 a month.

After the 2024 election, more people took concrete steps

Trump’s second victory again saw a surge in relocation inquiries, but by 2025 there was more evidence that some Americans were moving beyond just tentative searches.

In the Netherlands, 6,690 Americans applied for work, family, or study residence permits during the first 11 months of 2025, the highest number recorded in at least a decade.

Applications increased across several categories, including highly skilled employment and the Dutch-American Friendship Treaty program for self-employed Americans.

Approximately 700 Americans had received permits through that treaty by September 2025, compared with roughly 300 five years earlier.

UK government figures show unprecedented demand. During the 12 months ending in March 2025, 6,618 Americans applied for British citizenship, including more than 1,900 during the first quarter of 2025; the highest quarterly total since records began in 2004.

However, it should be noted that citizenship applications are not the same as new arrivals.

Many applicants were already living in Britain and qualified through spouses, family connections, or years of residence.

Trump’s victory may have encouraged them to get a second citizenship, but it may not have caused their original move out of the United States.

The Dutch figures are more directly connected to actual migration because they include applications for residence permits.

Even there, an election result cannot be seen as the only cause. Americans also cited healthcare costs, gun violence, education, lifestyle, employment opportunities, and European residency options.

You may also like to read: Best Countries to Start Over with $10,000. In this guide, we look at the countries where you could start a new life for the cost of a budget second-hand car.

The movement abroad had already begun before the 2024 election

It would be wrong to say that American emigration was a trend that suddenly began when Trump won again.

OECD figures show that about 104,000 U.S. citizens moved to other OECD countries in 2023, before the 2024 election. Spain received approximately 13% of that group, while the United Kingdom and Canada each received about 10%.

Remote work had already made international relocation possible for more professionals as digital-nomad and retirement visas became more widely available.

Americans were comparing U.S. healthcare, housing, and childcare costs with those in Europe and Latin America.

Some had also gained enough home equity, retirement income, or investment wealth to finance a move abroad.

The election did not start a new trend, but it could have motivated people to accelerate their plans.

It encouraged some people who were already considering relocation to apply for residency, claim citizenship through ancestry, or bring forward a planned move.

You may also like to read: Guide to Moving to Europe. If you are planning a move to Europe, then you will find this guide invaluable, from pros and cons to jobs and healthcare.

Interest in leaving remains exceptionally high, especially for women

Gallup’s 2025 research found that approximately one in five Americans would ideally like to move permanently to another country if they had the opportunity. Among women aged 15 to 44, the figure reached 40%.

However, Gallup’s longer trend provides another warning against blaming the entire increase on Trump.

Younger women’s desire to migrate began rising during the 2016 campaign, continued during Trump’s first term, reached 44% during Joe Biden’s final year in office, and remained close to that level in 2025.

Gallup concluded that the trend reflects declining confidence in American institutions rather than a response to only one president.

However, most people expressing a desire to leave will never complete an international move.

Immigration eligibility, employment, taxation, healthcare, family obligations, and the cost of relocation all affect that decision and can be formidable hurdles.

You may also like to read: Best Countries for Americans to Move to. In this guide, we look at some of the best countries to move to and why.

What does this mean for the 2026 midterms?

Trump’s presidential victories are a useful comparison, but the 2026 midterms are unlikely to produce the same response by themselves.

A presidential election immediately changes or preserves control of the executive branch. It can alter federal immigration enforcement, executive orders, foreign relations, and the administration of national laws.

Midterm elections change Congress and state governments, but they do not replace the president.

The greatest effect on the numbers of people wishing to leave the US would occur if the midterms confirmed that current federal policies will continue, or ends the possibility that Congress will restrain or reverse them.

You may also like to read: Will the Midterms Affect Where People Choose to Move? In this guide, we look at what effects the results of the Midterms will have on where people choose to move next.

Historical evidence suggests that politics can increase Americans’ desire to live abroad and drive forward plans that already exist.

It has not yet been proven that one election result can produce a mass departure of U.S. citizens.

It is far more likely, and the biggest risk, that we shall experience selective emigration: younger professionals, healthcare workers, academics, remote workers, and people with foreign citizenship options may act on political dissatisfaction more than the general population.

That movement may not be huge in numbers compared with domestic migration, but it is still important if those leaving are disproportionately educated or highly skilled.

I suspect a lot of the current interest we are seeing in overseas relocations will manifest itself as actual moves next year, as an international move takes time to plan.

But equally concerning is the dramatic drop in the number of legal immigrants to the US, which I suspect has far more to do with the current occupant of the White House.

It will be interesting to see after November 7^th, 2028, whether people will again view the US as a stable and attractive place to live. Only time will tell.

If you are serious about leaving the US, then be sure to visit our international moving blog, which is packed with country guides and tips to make every aspect of your international relocation easier, cheaper, and safer.