Could the 2026 Midterms Influence Where Americans Move Next?

What Happened After the 2016 and 2020 Elections?

Historical migration data does not reveal an obvious nationwide election effect.

The Internal Revenue Service publishes interstate migration statistics based on year-to-year changes in addresses reported on tax returns.

A tax return broadly represents a household, while the exemptions reported on those returns provide an approximation of the number of people moving.

The following figures compare migration immediately before and after the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

Net interstate migration of individuals

IRS filing-year period	Florida	Texas	California	New York
2015–2016	+188,857	+55,233	−91,131	−165,835
2016–2017	+190,551	+97,937	−177,062	−225,131
2019–2020	+167,534	+135,558	−258,435	−246,043
2020–2021	+259,275	+179,751	−331,244	−264,617

Author’s calculations from IRS gross migration files. Positive figures indicate a net inflow; negative figures indicate a net outflow.

The broad direction of migration did not change after either election.

Florida and Texas were already gaining residents before the elections and continued doing so afterward. California and New York were already experiencing net outflows, which subsequently became larger.

However, this does not prove that politics had no influence; some people undoubtedly moved partly because of political or policy concerns.

The figures show, however, that election results did not suddenly create the major interstate migration routes.

The same general Sun Belt migration pattern existed on both sides of the 2016 election.

The period after the 2020 election is more difficult to understand. Migration during 2020 and 2021 was affected by the pandemic, remote work, urban restrictions, changing housing needs, historically low mortgage rates, and a rapid increase in demand for larger homes. So it is more difficult to identify an election-related effect.

History shows us that elections generally accelerate existing migration patterns rather than reverse them.

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Policies Can Affect Migration Even When Elections Do Not

There is strong evidence that substantial differences in state policy can influence relocation decisions.

Abortion restrictions

The overturning of Roe v. Wade created one of the clearest recent tests of whether a major policy divergence could affect interstate movement.

Research has produced mixed but important findings.

One National Bureau of Economic Research study using change-of-address information found that abortion bans increased net migration out of states adopting them, with the effect growing after the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision.

Other research has not found evidence of a general mass exodus. Instead, the effects appear concentrated among particular groups.

Women of childbearing age and college graduates who moved became more likely to choose states without bans. States with abortion restrictions also experienced a larger decline in medical-residency applications.

This is an important point to note. A policy does not need to make millions of residents leave to have a noticeable demographic or economic effect.

A relatively small reduction in physicians, nurses, university graduates, or young families could affect workforce availability and long-term population growth.

Recognition of same-sex marriage

State-level recognition of same-sex marriage before it became legal nationwide provides another historical example.

Research found that legalization influenced interstate migration among same-sex couples, although subsequent analysis suggested that at least part of the increase was temporary.

This again points toward a targeted rather than universal migration response: policy differences matter most to the people whose lives are directly affected by them.

The recurring pattern is not “one party wins, and everyone leaves.” It is that a significant policy change changes the appeal of a state for a smaller but potentially economically important population.

Why the State Elections May Matter More Than Congress

The congressional results will get the headlines, but legislative contests could have a more direct influence on where people move.

State governments control or heavily influence:

• Income and property taxes
• Housing and zoning regulations
• School policy and education funding
• Abortion and reproductive-health rules
• Professional licensing
• Labor protections and minimum wages
• Business incentives
• Gun laws
• LGBTQ+ protections
• Insurance regulation
• Infrastructure and transportation spending

These decisions affect the cost of living and daily lives of those living in a state.

Congress may influence national economic conditions, federal spending, immigration enforcement, and tax policy.

But whether a family can build a home easily, obtain particular healthcare services, enroll a child in a preferred school or afford property insurance often depends more directly on state and local government.

This is why the migration effects of the 2026 elections will probably emerge state by state.

You may also like to read: How to Choose a Good Neighborhood. Moving is not about choosing the right state; it often comes down to the right neighborhood. In this guide, we suggest things to take into consideration when choosing a new neighborhood.

Five Ways the Midterms Could Influence Migration

1. Housing supply and property costs

Housing affordability will remain one of the strongest location choice drivers.

State governments can make residential construction easier or harder through zoning reforms, infrastructure investment, environmental review, building rules, and incentives for local development.

Election results that drive housing reform could increase construction and make certain metropolitan areas more accessible to new residents.

Conversely, a state may remain desirable for employment and lifestyle reasons but lose potential residents because it cannot build enough homes.

Housing policy is especially important because everyday costs are more important than political preferences.

A person may prefer the laws of California, Massachusetts, or New York but ultimately choose a less expensive state if they cannot afford a suitable home.

Similarly, you may like the tax advantages of Florida or Texas but reconsider moving there when insurance, property taxes, and home prices are taken into consideration.

2. Taxes and the total cost of living

Election campaigns frequently focus on state income taxes, property taxes, business taxes, and public spending.

Tax differences can influence retirees, high-income households, entrepreneurs and owners of location-flexible businesses. Nevertheless, headline tax rates are not the full story.

A state with no individual income tax may compensate through property taxes, sales taxes, insurance costs or service fees, but you should compare the total annual cost rather than one attractive tax feature.

The most consequential post-election development may not be a modest tax-rate change. It could be changes affecting housing supply, insurance markets, public services, and infrastructure simultaneously.

3. Healthcare and the medical workforce

Healthcare policy could affect both patients and professionals.

People managing fertility treatments, pregnancy complications, or chronic illnesses may consider legal access when choosing a destination.

Doctors and medical students may also avoid places where they believe laws create personal liability.

These decisions would probably involve a small percentage of movers. Yet healthcare workers are difficult to replace, so even limited movement can affect hospitals, rural communities, and rapidly growing metropolitan areas.

4. Education and family policy

Families with children may be particularly affected by election outcomes that impact public schools.

Curriculum standards, school funding, book restrictions, voucher programs, and the authority of local school districts can all become relocation considerations.

Families already dissatisfied with housing, schools, or employment may regard a new policy as the final reason to leave.

Education can also influence local moves within a state.

People may cross a county or school-district boundary rather than relocate hundreds of miles.

5. Employment and business investment

People move to where the opportunities are.

If the election produces changes in business taxes, energy policy, minimum wages, union rules, licensing, or infrastructure investment, companies may alter their hiring and expansion plans. Workers will then move there for the resulting jobs.

This is one reason it is difficult to separate political migration from economic migration. A worker may appear to have moved for a new job, while the location of that job may itself reflect decisions made by elected officials.

The real effect may therefore be indirect: elections change policy, policy changes investment, and investment changes where people decide to move.

You may also like to read: States with the Lowest Cost of Living. In this guide, we look at the states that currently have the lowest cost of living.

Which Americans Are Most Likely to Move?

The people likely to move for political or policy reasons are not necessarily those most affected by an election.

Relocation requires money, employment flexibility, and access to housing. A person may strongly disagree with a state government but remain because of family, employment, homeownership, medical care, or the cost of moving.

The most responsive groups are likely to include:

Remote and location-flexible workers. They can change states without first finding a local employer.

Young adults and recent graduates. They tend to have fewer property and family ties and are already more likely to relocate.

Highly trained professionals. Doctors, researchers, educators, and technology workers may have multiple employment options.

Families directly affected by policy changes. Healthcare, school, or family-law decisions can make substantial differences to a family.

Retirees and high-income households. Taxes, insurance, healthcare, and estate planning can affect their destination choices.

Business owners and independent workers. Regulatory and tax changes may influence where they register, expand, or physically operate a company.

Even among these groups, cost, employment, and lifestyle rather than just politics will determine their decision.

Could Red and Blue States Exchange Residents?

Some increase in politically motivated moves is possible.

Conservative households may favor states with lower taxes, fewer business regulations, broad gun rights, or more conservative education policies.

Liberal households may prioritize reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ protections, environmental policies, labor protections, or public services.

But political affiliation is only one characteristic of a destination.

Americans will choose metropolitan areas, suburbs, and neighborhoods, rather than because it is a blue or red state.

The Migration Map Is Already Changing

Any effect from the 2026 midterms will be part of the migration patterns that are already becoming less predictable.

Florida remains a major destination, but its net domestic migration fell sharply from more than 310,000 people in 2022 to approximately 22,500 in 2025.

South Carolina continued to record strong domestic inflows, while North Carolina and Idaho remained among the fastest-growing states.

At the same time, the Midwest recorded positive net domestic migration in 2025 for the first time during the current decade.

Ohio gained nearly 12,000 residents through domestic migration after losing more than 32,000 in 2021, while Michigan moved from a loss of more than 28,000 to a small gain.

These figures suggest that the Sun Belt is not the automatic destination of choice that it once was.

Home prices, insurance costs, extreme weather, remote-work policies and the relative affordability of Midwestern cities are changing the equation.

Election results will interact with those conditions rather than replace them.

The Carolinas could remain competitive

North Carolina and South Carolina combine relatively strong population growth with expanding metropolitan economies and, in many locations, housing that remains less expensive than in the largest coastal cities.

Their post-election migration figures will depend not only on politics but also on whether housing and infrastructure can keep up with demand.

Florida could become more selective

Florida will continue to attract retirees, high-income households and people seeking warm weather. However, rising insurance premiums, housing expenses and storm risks could discourage those on a budget.

Political compatibility may still attract some movers, but it may no longer compensate for the financial disadvantages for everyone.

Texas could continue gaining

Texas has large employment centers, no individual state income tax, and substantial housing construction. It also faces rising property costs, infrastructure pressures, and significant differences among its metropolitan areas.

Migration into Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and smaller Texas communities may follow different patterns even under the same state government.

The Midwest could receive more attention

Affordability may increasingly make cities in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, and other Midwestern states attractive alternatives to the expensive Sun Belt.

The region’s political diversity could also allow movers to choose among states and metropolitan areas with different policies without having to pay the highest coastal housing costs.

High-cost coastal states may still attract some people

California, New York, Massachusetts, and other expensive states may continue losing more residents than they gain domestically.

Yet they can remain attractive to workers in specialized industries and to people who prioritize particular laws, services, or cultural environments.

A state can experience an overall migration loss while still gaining highly educated or highly paid residents from certain industries.

Total population flow and the composition of that flow are different.

You may also like to read: Moving to Avoid Climate Change. Climate change is already influencing where people choose to live. In this guide, we look at the best places to live to avoid the worst of climate change.

International Migration Is Another Variable

Domestic migration is only one component of state population growth.

Net international migration into the United States fell from approximately 2.7 million people in 2024 to about 1.3 million in 2025 (As reported by Cato, the vast majority of the decline was people who were moving here legally).

The Census Bureau projected that the number could decline further by July 2026 if recent trends continued.

Federal immigration policy after the midterms could affect border enforcement, asylum processing, visa programs, agency funding, and oversight.

Changes would be felt most strongly in states and metropolitan areas that rely heavily on international migration for labor-force and population growth.

A state could therefore continue gaining residents from other parts of the country while experiencing slower overall growth because fewer international migrants arrive; equally, they could experience the reverse.

You may also like to read: Countries with the Easiest Residency Paths. Getting residency overseas is often a stumbling block to moving abroad. In this guide, we look at the easiest countries for Americans to get residency.

When Would a Post-Election Effect Become Visible?

We are unlikely to see an immediate rush of people moving in November 2026.

Is it more likely to run this timeline:

Late 2026: Election results change expectations about future policy.

Early to mid-2027: Governors and legislatures introduce budgets, regulations, and legislation.

Later in 2027: Businesses, universities, healthcare systems, and households begin making decisions.

2027–2028: Migration data start showing whether the changes affected actual relocation patterns.

Even then, why people chose to move will be difficult to prove. Analysts will need to separate election-related effects from mortgage rates, housing supply, employment growth, insurance costs, and the broader economy.

So, Could the 2026 Midterms Change Where Americans Move Next?

Yes, but probably not in the dramatic way election coverage may suggest.

The midterms are unlikely to cause millions of Americans to relocate solely because one party wins or loses.

Historical figures from the periods surrounding the 2016 and 2020 elections show that the country’s main migration routes generally continued in the same direction.

Florida and Texas were gaining residents before those elections. California and New York were losing residents before them. The elections did not start those patterns.

What the 2026 midterms could do is change the decision made by people already considering a relocation.

Politics can change where people move, but they are generally not the driver of American migration.

Housing, employment, and affordability will be the deciding factor as to whether most people can move, but the 2026 elections may determine where some of them decide to go.

Good luck with your move, and be sure to visit our home moving blog, which is packed with guides to make every aspect of your home move easier, cheaper, and safer.