{"id":48591,"date":"2026-10-19T06:24:12","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T10:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/?p=48591"},"modified":"2026-10-19T06:24:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T10:24:13","slug":"historic-el-nino-2026-27-noaas-october-update-and-what-it-means-for-people-moving-home","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/historic-el-nino-2026-27-noaas-october-update-and-what-it-means-for-people-moving-home\/","title":{"rendered":"Historic El Ni\u00f1o 2026\u201327: NOAA\u2019s October Update and What it Means for People Moving Home"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/El-Nino-October-Update.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48593 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/El-Nino-October-Update.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/El-Nino-October-Update-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ultimate-post-table-of-content ultp-block-38a6d2\"><div class=\"ultp-block-wrapper\"><div class=\"ultp-block-toc\"><div class=\"ultp-toc-header\"><div class=\"ultp-toc-heading\">Table of Contents<\/div><div class=\"ultp-collapsible-toggle  ultp-collapsible-right\"><a class=\"ultp-collapsible-text ultp-collapsible-open\" href=\";\">[Open]<\/a><a class=\"ultp-collapsible-text ultp-collapsible-hide\" href=\";\">[Close]<\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ultp-block-toc-style1 ultp-block-toc-body\"><ul class=\"ultp-toc-lists\"><li><a href=\"#El_Ni\u00f1o_Has_Strengthened_Again\">El Ni\u00f1o Has Strengthened Again<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#NOAAs_New_Winter_Outlook_The_Southern_US_Still_Looks_Wet\">NOAA&#8217;s New Winter Outlook. The Southern U.S. Still Looks Wet<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Californias_Wet_Signal_Now_Extends_Farther_Up_the_West_Coast\">California&#8217;s Wet Signal Now Extends Farther Up the West Coast<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#The_Southeast_Has_One_of_the_Clearest_El_Ni\u00f1o_Signals\">The Southeast Has One of the Clearest El Ni\u00f1o Signals<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Texas_and_the_Southern_Plains_Could_Also_Become_Wetter\">Texas and the Southern Plains Could Also Become Wetter<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#The_East_Coast_Could_Have_a_Wetter_Winter_Too\">The East Coast Could Have a Wetter Winter Too<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#A_Warmer_Northern_US_Does_Not_Mean_No_Snow\">A Warmer Northern U.S. Does Not Mean No Snow<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Some_Areas_Could_Actually_Be_Drier\">Some Areas Could Actually Be Drier<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#The_Drought_Forecast_Has_Changed_Too\">The Drought Forecast Has Changed Too<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Drought_Could_Get_Worse_in_the_Northern_Interior_West\">Drought Could Get Worse in the Northern Interior West<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Is_This_Beginning_to_Look_Like_1997\u201398?\">Is This Beginning to Look Like 1997\u201398?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#What_Has_Actually_Changed_Since_September?\">What Has Actually Changed Since September?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#What_This_Means_If_You_Are_Moving_This_Winter\">What This Means If You Are Moving This Winter<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Seasonal_Probabilities_Are_Not_Moving-Day_Forecasts\">Seasonal Probabilities Are Not Moving-Day Forecasts<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#So,_Are_We_Heading_for_a_Historic_El_Ni\u00f1o_Winter?\">So, Are We Heading for a Historic El Ni\u00f1o Winter?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>When we last looked at <a href=\"\/move\/historic-el-nino-2026-27-noaas-new-winter-outlook-and-what-it-means-for-moving\/\">El Ni\u00f1o in September<\/a>, NOAA estimated there was a 75% chance that the developing event would reach historic strength during the final months of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A month later, that possibility has become even more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NOAA&#8217;s October update<\/a> now puts the chance of a historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o during October through December at <strong>83%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And on October 15, NOAA released its latest U.S. seasonal temperature, precipitation, and drought outlooks, taking the forecast further into the heart of winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For anyone planning a move during late 2026 or early 2027, the picture is becoming much clearer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A wetter southern storm track remains one of the strongest signals, extending from California and the Southwest through the southern Plains and Southeast and eventually along much of the East Coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Large parts of the northern United States, meanwhile, are more likely to experience a warmer-than-normal winter overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But neither forecast means every week will follow the seasonal average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heavy rain, snow, freezing conditions, and significant winter storms can still occur, even in areas forecast to have an unusually mild season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is what has changed since NOAA&#8217;s September outlook, and what it could mean if you are moving this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"El_Ni\u00f1o_Has_Strengthened_Again\">El Ni\u00f1o Has Strengthened Again<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h1-El-nino-has-strengthend-again.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48594 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h1-El-nino-has-strengthend-again.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h1-El-nino-has-strengthend-again-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The biggest change since our September update is the increasing confidence that this El Ni\u00f1o could become one of the strongest observed in the modern record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA&#8217;s Climate Prediction Center reported on October 8 that El Ni\u00f1o had continued strengthening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ni\u00f1o-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly had reached approximately <strong>+2.1\u00b0C<\/strong>, while temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific were more than <strong>4\u00b0C above normal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ocean is not the only part of the system responding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA says atmospheric conditions are also strongly reflecting El Ni\u00f1o, including changes in tropical rainfall and wind patterns across the Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Together, these signals indicate a mature and still-strengthening El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA now estimates the probability of the event reaching what it defines as historic strength at:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>54% during September\u2013November<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>83% during October\u2013December<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>70% during November\u2013January<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA defines a historic-strength event in this forecast as a three-month Relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index, or RONI, of at least +2.5\u00b0C and stronger than previous El Ni\u00f1o events in the record dating back to 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Climate Prediction Center also says a strong-to-very-strong El Ni\u00f1o is likely to continue through January\u2013March 2027, with probabilities remaining above 83%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That does not guarantee a repeat of the winters associated with famous El Ni\u00f1o events such as 1982\u201383, 1997\u201398 or 2015\u201316.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the stronger El Ni\u00f1o becomes, the greater the likelihood that some familiar El Ni\u00f1o weather patterns will influence the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"NOAAs_New_Winter_Outlook_The_Southern_US_Still_Looks_Wet\">NOAA&#8217;s New Winter Outlook. The Southern U.S. Still Looks Wet<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h2-Southern-US.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48596 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h2-Southern-US.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h2-Southern-US-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>NOAA&#8217;s October 15 seasonal outlook now covers November, December, and January, moving the forecast firmly into winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strongest precipitation signal is still remarkably consistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Above-normal precipitation is favored across much of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>California<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Southwest<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the central and southern Plains<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Lower Mississippi Valley<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Southeast<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Eastern Seaboard<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The highest probabilities are concentrated across the Southeast and Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA says probabilities of above-normal precipitation exceed <strong>70% in some areas of the extreme Southeast and northern Florida<\/strong> through the January\u2013March 2027 period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is a strong seasonal signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For movers, however, it is important to understand what it means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It does not mean that rain will fall on 70% of days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It means NOAA believes the total precipitation over the three months has a greater than 70% probability of falling within the wetter-than-normal category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Individual moving days could still be completely dry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the odds of encountering periods of heavy rain, wet highways, standing water, and storm-related disruption are higher than normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Californias_Wet_Signal_Now_Extends_Farther_Up_the_West_Coast\">California&#8217;s Wet Signal Now Extends Farther Up the West Coast<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h3-California.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48595 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h3-California.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h3-California-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>California remains one of the areas receiving the most attention during this El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA now favors above-normal winter precipitation across much of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The expected Pacific jet stream is forecast to shift farther south and east, increasing the chances of Pacific storms reaching California and other parts of the West Coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The October forecast goes slightly further than the September outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA now says increased chances of above-normal precipitation extend across much of the West Coast and <strong>as far north as the Oregon coast<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The probabilities are not as high as those in the Southeast, partly because model forecasts still show a wider range of possible outcomes in the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, <strong>people moving to or from California this winter should be prepared for wetter conditions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That could mean:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>heavy rain during loading and unloading<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>localized flooding<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>slower highway travel<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>landslide or mudslide risk in vulnerable areas<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>snow rather than rain at higher elevations<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>difficult conditions across mountain passes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A wet seasonal outlook does not tell us exactly how much snow will fall in the Sierra Nevada or other mountain regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It does mean that anyone planning a long-distance move through the West should watch elevation as carefully as location.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rain near the coast can become heavy snow farther inland and higher up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"The_Southeast_Has_One_of_the_Clearest_El_Ni\u00f1o_Signals\">The Southeast Has One of the Clearest El Ni\u00f1o Signals<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h4-Southeast.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48597 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h4-Southeast.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h4-Southeast-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The Southeast continues to stand out in NOAA&#8217;s forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Above-normal precipitation during El Ni\u00f1o winters is one of the more consistent relationships seen in the United States, and NOAA says the current models are strongly supporting that pattern again this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Florida, Georgia, Alabama, the Carolinas, and surrounding states therefore look increasingly likely to experience a wetter-than-normal season.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That matters to movers because winter in the Southeast often appears relatively straightforward compared with moving in northern states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Snow and prolonged freezing conditions are less common.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heavy rain creates a different set of problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furniture and cardboard boxes can become soaked surprisingly quickly during loading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Standing water can slow trucks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Visibility can deteriorate during intense rainfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And roads that normally present few winter problems can become difficult during major storm systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are moving through the Southeast this winter, <a href=\"\/move\/moving-in-the-rain\/\">waterproof protection<\/a> may prove just as important as traditional cold-weather preparation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/move\/how-to-use-plastic-moving-boxes-when-moving\/\">Plastic storage bins<\/a>, mattress bags, and furniture covers are inexpensive compared with replacing belongings damaged during a wet move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Texas_and_the_Southern_Plains_Could_Also_Become_Wetter\">Texas and the Southern Plains Could Also Become Wetter<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h5-Texas.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48598 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h5-Texas.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h5-Texas-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The wetter-than-normal area stretches west through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the central and southern Plains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That <strong>includes parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and neighboring states<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is particularly interesting because some of these areas experienced unusually dry conditions during late summer and early fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As El Ni\u00f1o becomes more influential, NOAA expects the average storm track to favor more precipitation across much of the southern half of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For someone moving through Texas or the southern Plains, the winter pattern could therefore look very different from the weather experienced earlier in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risks are not necessarily dramatic winter storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heavy rain, thunderstorms, flooding, and rapidly changing road conditions can be just as disruptive to a moving schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"The_East_Coast_Could_Have_a_Wetter_Winter_Too\">The East Coast Could Have a Wetter Winter Too<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h7-East-Coast.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48599 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h7-East-Coast.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h7-East-Coast-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The El Ni\u00f1o wet signal does not stop in the Southeast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA now favors above-normal precipitation along much of the Eastern Seaboard during November through January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That potentially puts cities such as <strong>Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, and areas farther north into a wetter seasonal pattern.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The difficult question is what form that precipitation will take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seasonal forecasts cannot tell us whether a certain January storm will produce rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Temperature at the time the storm arrives determines that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This creates an important distinction for movers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A wetter winter along the East Coast does not automatically mean a snowier winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some storms may produce rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Others could produce snow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Others may bring several precipitation types within the same system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The useful information months in advance is simply that precipitation could play a larger-than-normal role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once your moving date is within about a week, local National Weather Service forecasts become far more important than the seasonal outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"A_Warmer_Northern_US_Does_Not_Mean_No_Snow\">A Warmer Northern U.S. Does Not Mean No Snow<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h8-no-snow.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48600 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h8-no-snow.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h8-no-snow-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>NOAA favors above-normal seasonal temperatures across much of the northern tier of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strongest warm signals include areas around the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Above-normal temperatures are also favored across much of the western United States, the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and South Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Much of the Southeast, meanwhile, currently leans closer to near-normal temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This sounds like good news for anyone moving in northern cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It may be, but there is an important catch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seasonal temperature outlooks describe averages over three months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A warmer-than-normal winter can still contain severe cold spells, major snowstorms, and periods of dangerous ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For movers, that means normal <a href=\"\/move\/moving-in-the-winter\/\">winter precautions<\/a> remain necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do not assume a seasonal map showing above-normal temperatures guarantees easy driving conditions on moving day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Some_Areas_Could_Actually_Be_Drier\">Some Areas Could Actually Be Drier<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h9-drier-areas.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48601 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h9-drier-areas.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h9-drier-areas-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o does not make the entire country wetter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA currently favors below-normal precipitation across parts of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>the Northern Rockies<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the northern High Plains<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Great Lakes region<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>interior Alaska<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As winter progresses, the drier areas around the Northern Rockies and Great Lakes remain in the forecast and gradually shift somewhat northward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That illustrates why national headlines such as &#8220;El Ni\u00f1o Means a Wet Winter&#8221; can be misleading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The effects vary substantially by region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One moving truck could begin its journey in unusually wet weather in the Southeast, cross relatively quiet conditions farther north and then encounter snow in the Rockies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For long-distance moves, checking conditions along the entire route becomes particularly important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"The_Drought_Forecast_Has_Changed_Too\">The Drought Forecast Has Changed Too<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h9-drought-forecast.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48602 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h9-drought-forecast.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h9-drought-forecast-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>NOAA also released its new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/expert_assessment\/SDO\/sdo_archive\/2026\/11\/seasonal_drought.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Seasonal Drought Outlook<\/a> on October 15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And this is perhaps one of the most noticeable developments since September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strong El Ni\u00f1o and wetter winter forecast now support drought improvement or removal across large parts of the southern and eastern United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Improvement is expected across portions of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>California<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Southwest<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Southern Great Plains<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Lower Mississippi Valley<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the Southeast<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the East Coast<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA has particularly high confidence that drought will end across much of the Southeast because recent rainfall is being followed by such a strong wetter-than-normal winter signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>California is also expected to see improvement or removal of drought as the normal wet season begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That does not mean every long-term drought impact immediately disappears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Groundwater, reservoirs, vegetation, and soil moisture can take considerably longer to recover than a seasonal rainfall deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In parts of the Southwest, NOAA specifically warns that some longer-term impacts may remain even if conditions improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Drought_Could_Get_Worse_in_the_Northern_Interior_West\">Drought Could Get Worse in the Northern Interior West<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h10-north-interior.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48603 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h10-north-interior.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h10-north-interior-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The opposite pattern is expected in portions of the Northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA favors drought development or worsening there because the winter outlook leans drier while temperatures are expected to remain above normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Little major change is currently expected across portions of the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The drought outlook therefore follows the same broad El Ni\u00f1o pattern visible in the precipitation forecast:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wetter across much of the southern United States and comparatively drier farther north and inland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Is_This_Beginning_to_Look_Like_1997\u201398?\">Is This Beginning to Look Like 1997\u201398?<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h12-9798-el-nino.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48604 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h12-9798-el-nino.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h12-9798-el-nino-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Whenever El Ni\u00f1o approaches historic strength, comparisons with 1982\u201383, 1997\u201398 and 2015\u201316 become inevitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But those comparisons should still be treated cautiously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA is studying historically strong El Ni\u00f1o events when producing this winter&#8217;s outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are similarities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are also differences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the biggest questions earlier this year involved the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The previous three exceptionally strong El Ni\u00f1o events occurred while the PDO was positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The PDO has been negative during the development of the 2026 event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That raised the possibility that it might reduce or alter some traditional El Ni\u00f1o impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA&#8217;s October outlook now suggests that because the current El Ni\u00f1o is becoming so strong, the negative PDO may ultimately have only a limited influence on this winter&#8217;s overall pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even so, history is a guide rather than a script.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o does not mean the winter of 2026\u201327 will reproduce the floods, storms, or snowfall patterns of previous events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"What_Has_Actually_Changed_Since_September?\">What Has Actually Changed Since September?<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/changes-since-september.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48605 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/changes-since-september.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/changes-since-september-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>For anyone who read our previous El Ni\u00f1o update, the answer can be summarized fairly simply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The basic pattern has not reversed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It has become more confident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In September, NOAA was already favoring a wetter southern United States and warmer conditions across much of the north.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o has strengthened further.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The probability of historic strength has risen from 75% to 83% for October\u2013December.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NOAA&#8217;s seasonal forecast has moved deeper into winter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Southeast wet signal has become particularly strong.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wetter conditions are now favored across much of the West Coast as far north as Oregon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Drought relief is expected across large areas of the southern and eastern United States.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For winter movers, that means the broad risks are becoming easier to identify.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"What_This_Means_If_You_Are_Moving_This_Winter\">What This Means If You Are Moving This Winter<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/moving-this-winter.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48606 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/moving-this-winter.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/moving-this-winter-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>There is still no reason to postpone a move simply because El Ni\u00f1o is exceptionally strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is good reason to allow more flexibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are moving during the winter of 2026\u201327:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Watch the entire route.<\/strong><br>A long-distance move can cross several completely different weather patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Allow extra time.<\/strong><br>Avoid arranging schedules in which even a few hours of bad weather create major problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Protect belongings from water.<\/strong><br>This could be particularly important across California, the Southwest, southern Plains, Southeast and East Coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Treat mountain routes separately.<\/strong><br>A forecast for rain at lower elevations can mean snow or dangerous conditions at higher elevations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ask your mover about weather delays.<\/strong><br>Find out what happens if a truck is delayed by a storm and whether delivery dates are guaranteed or estimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Keep essentials with you.<\/strong><br>Documents, medications, chargers, clothing, and toiletries should not disappear inside a moving truck that could be delayed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Switch from seasonal forecasts to local forecasts as moving day approaches.<\/strong><br>Seasonal outlooks are excellent for understanding risk months in advance. They are not intended to predict the weather on a particular Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Seasonal_Probabilities_Are_Not_Moving-Day_Forecasts\">Seasonal Probabilities Are Not Moving-Day Forecasts<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seasonal-probabilities.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48608 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seasonal-probabilities.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/seasonal-probabilities-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>This is especially important when an El Ni\u00f1o receives widespread media attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An 83% probability of historic El Ni\u00f1o strength does not mean there is an 83% probability your move will be disrupted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Likewise, a 70% probability of above-normal precipitation does not mean it will rain during 70% of the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA&#8217;s seasonal maps compare total temperature or precipitation over several months with historical averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They tell us where the odds have shifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They do not tell us whether it will rain at 9 a.m. on your moving day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The closer your move gets, the more important local short- and medium-range forecasts become.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"So,_Are_We_Heading_for_a_Historic_El_Ni\u00f1o_Winter?\">So, Are We Heading for a Historic El Ni\u00f1o Winter?<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-aspectratio=\"690\/445\" width=\"690\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h15-historic-el-nino.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48607 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h15-historic-el-nino.jpg 690w, https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/h15-historic-el-nino-300x193.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Potentially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The atmospheric and oceanic signals have strengthened considerably, and NOAA now believes there is an 83% chance that the event reaches historic strength during October through December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is substantially higher than the 75% probability NOAA gave in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The winter weather pattern is also beginning to resemble what forecasters would normally expect from a very strong El Ni\u00f1o: a more active southern storm track, wetter conditions across much of the South and East, and generally warmer conditions across parts of the northern United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But &#8220;historic El Ni\u00f1o&#8221; should not be translated into &#8220;historic winter everywhere.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The final impact will depend on exactly where individual storms travel, how temperatures behave when those storms arrive, and how other atmospheric patterns interact with El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For people moving home, those risks are becoming increasingly defined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A wet southern and eastern winter, possible heavy precipitation along the West Coast, and continued winter-weather hazards farther north all make flexibility particularly valuable for anyone planning a move over the next several months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And with El Ni\u00f1o still strengthening, this winter may yet have a few surprises left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When we last looked at El Ni\u00f1o in September, NOAA estimated there was a 75% chance that the developing event would reach historic strength during the final months of 2026. A month later, that possibility has become even more likely. NOAA&#8217;s October update now puts the chance of a historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o during October through &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/historic-el-nino-2026-27-noaas-october-update-and-what-it-means-for-people-moving-home\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Historic El Ni\u00f1o 2026\u201327: NOAA\u2019s October Update and What it Means for People Moving Home&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":48592,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ub_ctt_via":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guides","entry"],"acf":[],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/El-Nino-October-18-Update.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Jessica Ryan","author_link":"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/author\/jessica-ryan\/"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Historic El Ni\u00f1o 2026\u201327: NOAA\u2019s October Update and What it Means for People Moving Home - MoveAdvisor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"NOAA says the chance of a historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o has risen to 83%. 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See the latest 2026\u201327 winter forecast and what it could mean for moving in the U.S.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/moveadvisor.com\/move\/historic-el-nino-2026-27-noaas-october-update-and-what-it-means-for-people-moving-home\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Historic El Ni\u00f1o 2026\u201327: NOAA\u2019s October Update and What it Means for People Moving Home - MoveAdvisor","og_description":"NOAA says the chance of a historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o has risen to 83%. 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